Whatever shape the next government takes, the next three years will be decided less by who sits in the Beehive and more by whether New Zealanders feel confident enough to plan, hire, build and buy again.

Our lead-in to the election was stronger than many expected. September was a flurry of activity across our Remuera, Ponsonby, Orakei and Greenlane offices. October brought a brief pause as the campaign peaked, and then over the last two weeks the market jump-started again. Now the picture is clearing. The question worth asking is not who won. It is what do we want the next three years to look like, and how we will get there.

Where we stand:

We go into this term with a tested economy but a market that is ready to move. It is worth being honest about both halves of that.

Read together, these numbers describe a market that is waiting, not one that is broken. Prices have held while people have paused. At the prestige end, the Orakei median sat at $1.8 million in August. The demand is there. What has been missing is the quality of good homes and the confidence to act on it.

Confidence is the real currency:

Markets do not move on policy alone. They move on belief. Confidence is what turns a pre-approval into an offer, a business plan into a lease and an idea into a new hire.

ANZ put it plainly in its September Business Outlook: “waiting for certainty is a decision to do nothing”. Business has done a fair bit of waiting this year, and NBR reported firms in limbo through October as they waited to see who would lead the country.

Property buyers and sellers, though, have been far less rattled than the headlines suggest. Realestate. co. nz compared the six months before and after the 2017, 2020 and 2023 elections and found no election effect on listings, asking prices or buyer searches in any region. Trademe’s spring survey of more than 2,000 buyers and homeowners found only one in five say the election is influencing their decisions.

What does move the market is the season. Listings rise every spring, election or not, and Trade Me found a quarter of sellers are still undecided on when to list. ASB, reported by NBR, makes the same point from the economy’s side: pre-election gloom is often more mood than reality. NZIER’s latest survey points to a recovery gaining momentum next year.

Confidence also compounds. A confident buyer gives a vendor the courage to list. That sale keeps a lawyer, a broker, a builder, a removal company and the local cafe busy. Property is often where confidence shows up first, and where it pays forward fastest.

The future of New Zealand - what we should want from the next three years:

1. Settled rules.

People and businesses can plan around almost any setting. What they cannot plan around is constant change. Three years of consistent rules on tax, lending and building would do more for confidence than any single headline policy.

2. Jobs that keep our talent here, and bring it home.

The tide is starting to turn. Stats NZ figures show 26,574 New Zealanders came home after time overseas in the year to August, up 18% on two years earlier, while the number leaving has levelled off. For many, the grass on the other side of the Tasman has not proved greener. With unemployment at a ten-year high, the goal for the next three years is simple: create the jobs that give our best people, and those coming home, a reason to build their careers here.

3. Inflation under control, so rates can settle.

Bloomberg reports many economists expect inflation to run above the Reserve Bank’s target into the fourth quarter, driven by fuel prices and a weaker dollar. A steady rate environment matters more to families than a cheap one that swings.

4. Investment that builds. Infrastructure, housing supply and private capital flowing into productive assets. Treasury’s pre-election update showed the deficit narrowing to $6.8 billion, which gives the next government a firmer base to build from.

5. Ambition and a can-do attitude.

The Kiwi can-do spirit built this country, and it is what will carry us forward. That means backing our builders, founders and exporters, and leaving tall poppy syndrome behind. When someone succeeds, the right response is to celebrate them and learn from them, not cut them down. A country that is proud of its winners creates more of them.

None of these belong to one party. They are the conditions that let ordinary people make long-term decisions with confidence.

The future of Auckland:

Auckland is the country’s largest economy and its front door to the world. When Auckland is confident, New Zealand feels it.

The city starts this term with a genuine win. The City Rail Link, a century in the talking and a decade in the building, opened to passengers in September. It changes how the central city connects to the suburbs, and over time it will change where people choose to live and work.

Here is what the next three years needs to deliver for Auckland:

• A city centre full of people again. Apartment values in the central city have been the weakest in the region. With the CRL running, the next step is bringing workers, residents and visitors back into the heart of the city.

• More homes in the right places, built well. Auckland has built nearly 25,000 townhouses in eight years. The lesson? Buyers want quality, not homes squeezed onto every spare section. Well-designed homes with garages and storage still sell, while the rest sit. The next wave should be near transport, built to last and somewhere people genuinely want to live.

• Villages with their character intact. Remuera, Ponsonby, Orakei and Greenlane thrive because they feel like communities. Growth should add to that, not erode it.

• A reason to stay. Great schools, safe streets, good jobs and a lifestyle that rivals any city in the world. That is the real competition with Sydney and Melbourne.

Auckland’s long-term track record is strong. Opes Partners’ data shows Auckland house prices have grown about 6.2% a year on average since 1992, and Opes ranks Auckland as the strongest place to invest in New Zealand this year.

What it means for property:

The opportunity right now is choice and value. ASB, reported by BusinessDesk, puts national affordability at about 6.7 times household income, down from 9.8 at the 2021 peak, and expects a measured recovery rather than a boom. That is a healthier market for everyone.

• Buyers. Prices are still well below the last peak, and 61% of buyers in Trade Me’s August survey said it is a good time to buy. The harder part is finding the right home, now buyers’ biggest worry, so have finance ready before it comes up. In my experience, the best opportunities appear before confidence fully returns, not after.

• Sellers. Buyers who took a breath in October came back in the final fortnight, many with finance in place and ready to move. Well-presented homes, priced to the market, are the ones that will benefit first. With buyers short of good options and 63% of sellers having already reset their price expectations (Trade Me), the conditions for getting deals done are in place. The prestige end has stayed active throughout.

• Investors. Auckland’s fundamentals of incomes, tenant demand and population growth have not changed. What investors need most from the next three years is clear, stable rules, so they can plan beyond the next election.

• Business owners. Property decisions follow business decisions. As firms regain the confidence to hire and expand, demand for homes near work follows.

No one can promise where prices will go. What we can say is that the conditions for a steady, sustainable market are falling into place.

Let’s get on with it: 

The election has given us something every market needs: a line in the sand. The waiting is over. What the next three years look like now depends less on Wellington and more on the decisions each of us makes from here.

To the families who put their plans on hold, the business owners who delayed that hire, and the investors watching from the sidelines: the conditions are better than the headlines suggest. Confidence does not arrive on its own. It is built, one decision at a time.

Whether you are buying, selling or investing, the team at Megan Jaffe Real Estate, Ray White Remuera, Ponsonby, Orakei and Greenlane, will give you a clear, honest read on your local market and a plan for what comes next. Call in to any of our four offices or get in touch with a member of our team.

Let’s get on with it, together.